Predictors Beware

All kinds of money is spent each year by marketers and public relations professionals on research that will help them predict how potential customers and audiences are going to react to a range of outreach efforts, including slogans, products, candidates, performers, plot lines, and  even colors. The list, of course, is a lot longer and much more comprehensive than that. Marketing research is a multi-million dollar industry fueled by the drive of manufacturers, entrepreneurs, companies etc. to either make money, win public approval, or both. I do not criticize them for this. After all, everyone has to make a living, especially when they themselves often have made substanial effort in terms of financial investment, time, and personal sacrifice to achieve success.   

What is dicey is the whole "prediction business." I say that because predicting human behavior is something behavorial scientists are still trying to figure out. Related to that, I recently came across a quote from cartoonist Scott Adams, best known for the "Dilbert" series. Adams wrote, "There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as 'nutty methods.' Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly known as a complete waste of time." This is a funny quote, but also quite inciteful.

If I were as clever as Adams, I would proceed to write an equally funny and provocative line. The truth is I am not, so I won't. However, I will say this to all current and prospective communicators whose job it is or will be to predict the actions of others: be as thorough as you can in your research, yet also quality every conclusion you draw because the chances are great you going to miss the bullseye a lot more often than you hit it. There are just too many variables affecting human behavior, and each one has a different level of inflence on any given day. Good research helps provide you with the ability to recognize others' probable or possible behavior. Nothing more.